Cátedra Jean Monnet ad personam. Departamento Economía.
Catedrático europeo Jean Monnet: Dr. Carlos San Juan Mesonada
Economía de la Integración Europea / Economics of European Integration
Economía Española y Europea
NYT 26/05/2016Publicado el 27 May 2016
What is Britain deciding?
A referendum on June 23 will ask voters whether the country should “remain a member of the European Union” or “leave the European Union.”
Who is voting? Is this vote final? What is likely to happen?
Authors: Carl Emmerson , Paul Johnson , Ian Mitchell and David Phillips. Institute for Fiscal Studies. 25 May 2016. ISBN: 978-1-911102-13-7Publicado el 26 May 2016
We find that the mechanical effect of leaving the EU would be to improve the UK’s public finances by in the order of £8 billion – assuming the UK did not subsequently sign up to EEA or an alternative EU trade deal that involved contributions to the EU budget. However, there is an overwhelming consensus among those who have made estimates of the consequences of Brexit for national income that it would reduce national income in both the short and long runs. The economic reasons for this – increased uncertainty, higher costs of trade and reduced FDI – are clear. The only significant exception to this consensus is ‘Economists for Brexit’.
In the short run, our estimates therefore suggest that the overall effect of Brexit would be to damage the public finances. On the basis of estimates by NIESR, the effect could be between £20 billion and £40 billion in 2019–20, more than enough to wipe out the planned surplus. In the long run, lower GDP would likely mean lower cash levels of public spending.
By STEPHEN CASTLEMAY www.nytimes.com May 25, 2016Publicado el 26 May 2016
Prime Minister David Cameron’s campaign to keep Britain in the European Union was bolstered on Wednesday by a report from one of the country’s most authoritative economic research bodies, which concluded that a withdrawal from the bloc would lead to up to two more years of public spending cuts or tax increases.
A frequent critic of government economic plans, the research body, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, this time delivered some welcome news for Mr. Cameron. The think tank echoed the conclusions of several leading international organizations that the shock and uncertainty produced by a British exit — a so-called Brexit — would shrink the economy.
Authors: Swati Dhingra, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson and John Van Reenen. CEP Brexit Analysis No. 3Publicado el 26 May 2016