Universidad Carlos III de Madrid - UC3M

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Cátedra Jean Monnet. Departamento Economía. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Cátedra Jean Monnet ad personam. Departamento Economía.

Catedrático europeo Jean Monnet: Dr. Carlos San Juan Mesonada


Economía de la Integración Europea / Economics of European Integration

Economía Española y Europea

  • Evaluation of the Market Responsibility Programme put forward by the European Milk Board taking 2014 as a test year

    Alan Matthews and Rossella Soldi. EU. 2016 ISBN: 978-92-895-0874-2. doi:10.2863/185270

    Publicado el 15 June 2016
    The EU dairy sector crisis is still on the agenda of policy makers as protests by farmers and farmers’ representative organisations on low farm-gate milk prices continue. The farm aid package of EUR 500 million proposed by the European Commission (EC) and endorsed by the Council of Agriculture Ministers on 15 September 2015 did not halt the raising of concerns, including at the institutional level. In response to these concerns expressed by some national delegations, the Presidency of the Council of the European Union decided to have a formal discussion on the market situation in the dairy sector at the March 2016 Council of Agriculture Ministers meeting. On that occasion, measures currently in place as part of the farm aid package agreed in September 2015 will also be assessed.

  • Does Deflation Threaten the Global Economy?

    Azhar Iqbal and John E. Silvia. 2016. Global Economy Journal. Volume 16, Issue 2, Pages 189–212, ISSN (Online) 1553-5304, ISSN (Print) 2194-5659, DOI: 10.1515/gej-2015-0042, May 2016

    Publicado el 13 June 2016

    What probability can we assign to the outlook for global deflation?

    Recently, much of the discussion around monetary policy in the United States, Eurozone and Japan has focused on the threat of deflation and how to avoid it. How likely is deflation for each of these countries, and more broadly, for the global economy as a whole? This paper provides an early-warning-system (EWS) to predict the probability of inflation/deflation in the near term. Specifically, we utilize an ordered probit approach to estimate the six-month ahead probability of three distinct scenarios for the inflation outlook: inflationary pressure, deflationary pressure or price stability. We build models for five regions to generate a signal for each region’s inflation outlook. Our first model assesses the inflation/ deflation outlook for the global economy, while the second model generates the likelihood of each inflation scenario for the advanced economies. Our final three models forecast the probability of inflation/deflation for the United States, the Eurozone and Japan. Our global model suggests deflationary pressure is more likely than the other two inflation scenarios, with the model forecasting a 99 percent chance of deflationary pressure in the next six months. The advanced economies model suggests a 58 percent chance of deflationary pressure. The probability of deflationary pressure for the United States is 60 percent, 72 percent for Japan and 56 percent for the Eurozone. Since 2013, all five models have consistently suggested that deflationary pressure is the most likely of the three scenarios. Given the historical accuracy of these models, and by combining all these signals into one framework, we predict that the risk of deflationary pressure is much higher than the other two inflation scenarios for the global economy in the near term.

  • Regional Integration in Latin America

    Maria E. de Boyrie and Mordechai Kreinin. 2016. Global Economy Journal. Volume 16, Issue 2, Pages 293–311, ISSN (Online) 1553-5304, ISSN (Print) 2194-5659, DOI: 10.1515/gej-2015-0066, May 2016

    Publicado el 13 June 2016
    This paper assesses the welfare effects of integration in Latin America. It estimates trade creation and diversion of: 1) integration of the four Mercosur countries (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) and 2) amalgamation of Mercosur with the Andean group (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru). The method used to proxy trade creation is the change in total imports of a country from before to after integration, while trade diversion is proxied by the change in the country’s external imports between the two periods. A “control country” approach is used to hold constant the effects on imports of factors other than integration, such as income and price changes. With some exceptions Latin American integration was found beneficial to welfare in that trade creation exceeded trade diversion.

  • The Common Agricultural Policy After 2013 Author: JEAN-CHRISTOPHE BUREAU.

    Intereconomics, Volume 47, Number 6, November/December 2012

    Publicado el 2 June 2016

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