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4 La burbuja inmobiliaria y financiera.

Jueves 12 de enero de 2017, por Carlos San Juan

Explica el proceso de apalancamiento finaciero de los bancos y su responsabilidad en la crisis económica de 2008. Se relaciona la creación de la burbuja inmobiliaria con la fase expansiva de la economía española para, a continuación, explicar los efectos de la crisis inmobiliaria en el desencadenamiento de la recesión económica de septiembre de 2008 y el agravamiento de la depresión en W impulsada por la crisis financiera internacional primero y, despues, por las medidas de austeridad fiscal.

Finalmente se explica la recuperación a partir de 2014 y los efectos del desapalancamiento financiero.

La burbuja inmobiliaria Carlos San Juan

See IDR Spain 2015: p.3 & p.25: 2.2. INDEBTEDNESS AND DELEVERAGING

The household and corporate sectors are reducing their debt overhang. Spain’s private sector considerably increased its debt burden in the years before the crisis. (...)

Credit contraction has been the main channel of private sector deleveraging, with aggregate bank lending on a declining path since 2010. (...)

In contrast to the private sector, general government debt has been on an increasing trend. (...)

Private sector deleveraging has been going in parallel with restructuring in the banking sector. The implosion of the real estate bubble caused a sharp deterioration in banks asset portfolios. Systemic concerns about the banking sector and the capacity of the sovereign to support it came to a head in the summer of 2012. The ensuing financial assistance programme for the banking sector set the basis for cleaning up bank balance sheets in order to provide new lending to the real economy and support the economic recovery. Meanwhile, after several years of price correction the housing market seems to have passed the turning point.

Financial sector developments

The burst of the real estate bubble and the economic recession that followed has altered both the quality and composition of bank assets, forcing banks to restructure their activity and clean up their balance sheets. (...)

Adjustment in the housing market

The correction of the Spanish housing market after the burst of the construction bubble has been sharp.

Spain witnessed a construction boom prior to the crisis.

The share of residential investment exceeded 10 % of GDP each year between 2003 and 2008.

In the crisis, it fell from the peak of around 12.5 % in 2006 to 4.1 % in the first half of 2014 (Graph 2.2.5), and is now lower than the average for the euro area.

Nominal house prices have decreased by 36 % from the peak in Q3-2007 (Graph 2.2.6).

Recent rental market reforms support the adjustment process in the housing market.

In 2013 Spain amended its legislation to create a larger and more efficient housing rental market. Law 4/2013 on the promotion of the rental housing market strengthened the legal rights of owners but also provided greater flexibility in ending rental agreements. A more flexible and efficient rental market should facilitate the conversion of vacant units into rental accommodation. Together with the elimination of tax-deductible mortgage payments from the beginning of 2013, in the long term it is expected to reduce the bias towards home ownership and the volatility of house prices.

Read the full text and plots at:

HOUSING MARKET. After seven years of correction, housing prices seem to be bottoming out in 2015

For complete description of the crisis:

2.2.3. Housing market 2013

Temas candentes del sector inmobiliario español. Reactivar el mercado

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