THE REFORM OF THE EUROPEAN UNION’S FISCAL GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORK IN A NEW MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Alloza, A., J. Andrés, P. Burriel, I. Kataryniuk, J. J. Pérez and J.L. Vega. Banco de España. Documentos Ocasionales. N.º 2121. 2021.
Martes 26 de octubre de 2021, por Carlos San Juan
The main proposals for the reform of the European Union’s fiscal policy framework
affect three blocks of issues: (i) simplifying the rules to make them more transparent and
flexible; (ii) incorporating new supranational risk-sharing instruments into the Economic
and Monetary Union, in particular to facilitate the absorption of severe shocks; and (iii)
the fiscal aspects necessarily being accompanied by reforms at the national (structural
reforms) and supranational (e.g. pressing forward with the capital markets union) levels.
Irrespective of their political feasibility, these proposals do not easily fit the current
macroeconomic environment, which is far removed from that of the 1990s: structural trends,
such as digitalisation, globalisation, the climate transition and population ageing, affecting
the natural rates of interest and potential growth are emerging or taking hold. Also, after
the Great Moderation, we have entered a period of severe global shocks. In this paper
we argue that this setting calls for a paradigm shift in how the fiscal policy framework is
designed, as opposed to the incremental reform approach of recent decades. This should
include improved governance of fiscal rules, which should be simpler, more functional and
more credible than the current ones, but it should also go a step further and incorporate
supranational risk-sharing components enabling the smooth operation of the monetary and
fiscal policy mix, from a wider euro area perspective. We provide quantitative elements to
illustrate several challenges with a bearing on any reform process in the current setting:
(i) medium-term debt anchors should be adapted to the medium and long-term interest
rate and potential growth expectations; (ii) economies may remain subject to very severe
shocks, meaning that fiscal space must be recovered in the medium term; and (iii) realistic
mechanisms for absorbing existing fiscal imbalances must be implemented.