The perception regarding the prospects of the global economic scenario has improved as a result of a relaxation of financial tensions, particularly in Europe, and the agreements to avoid a disorderly fiscal contraction in the US However, to sustain the recovery, appropriate policies must be adopted in both the US and, particularly, in the euro area, where risks are more significant Without ruling out upside surprises, the risks remain tilted to the downside, although they appear less likely now than until summer 2012. Spain: caution due to existing risks. In 2013, conditioned to lower financial tensions, the economy should bottom out. Growth expected in 2014. It is crucial to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened up in Europe and Spain to push through reforms that shore up the improvement in confidence.