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Spanish economic forecasts panel: May 2015.

Author: FUNCAS Economic Trends and Statistics Department. SEFO - Spanish Economic and Financial Outlook. Vol. 4, N.º 3 (May 2015)

Wednesday 24 June 2015, by Carlos San Juan


The growth forecast for 2015 has been raised three tenths of a percent to 2.9%.

Industrial activity will pick up speed in 2015 and 2016.

The employment forecast has improved According to the social security membership figures, employment growth picked up speed gradually over the first four months of the year. However, the results of the first quarter’s LFS were somewhat disappointing, suggesting a more modest increase than in the previous quarter, although this survey’s figures for trends in the labour force have been somewhat erratic recently, which may be distorting the employment and unemployment figures. The job creation forecast for 2015 has been revised upwards to 2.6% and that for 2016 to 2.4%. The forecast average annual unemployment rates for this year and the next have been revised downwards to 22.2% and 20.5%, respectively, three and four tenths of a percentage point lower than in the previous panel forecast.

The government deficit will slightly overshoot the target The combined deficit of central government, the Social Security system and the autonomous regions to February 2015 came to 10.285 billion euros, a deficit 420 million euros smaller than in the year-earlier period. The improvement is due to the autonomous regions, whose deficit was a billion euros less than that in the yearearlier period, while the central government increased its deficit by 300 million euros, and the social security system reduced its surplus by 300 million euros.

Attached documents

  • The growth forecast for 2015 has been raised three tenths of a percent to 2.9%.

    Industrial activity will pick up speed in 2015 and 2016.

    The employment forecast has improved According to the social security membership figures, employment growth picked up speed gradually over the first four months of the year. However, the results of the first quarter’s LFS were somewhat disappointing, suggesting a more modest increase than in the previous quarter, although this survey’s figures for trends in the labour force have been somewhat erratic recently, which may be distorting the employment and unemployment figures. The job creation forecast for 2015 has been revised upwards to 2.6% and that for 2016 to 2.4%. The forecast average annual unemployment rates for this year and the next have been revised downwards to 22.2% and 20.5%, respectively, three and four tenths of a percentage point lower than in the previous panel forecast.

    The government deficit will slightly overshoot the target The combined deficit of central government, the Social Security system and the autonomous regions to February 2015 came to 10.285 billion euros, a deficit 420 million euros smaller than in the year-earlier period. The improvement is due to the autonomous regions, whose deficit was a billion euros less than that in the yearearlier period, while the central government increased its deficit by 300 million euros, and the social security system reduced its surplus by 300 million euros.


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